Kris Graft recently wrote the article, "Wii the Death Knell of Bleeding Edge Console?" For Next Generation recently. This certainly bears some further discussion considering some of the points brought up in the article were interesting but still strangely off the mark. For instance, the assumption that Nintendo will even last out the 4 years of this generation's console cycle. If they don't then are they going to be losing money on the next iteration of the Wii. Most analysts believe that the Wii was only the test platform for the new control scheme and that the Wii 2 or whatever it will be called will be the actual front tier console for Nintendo.
This console will have a more fleshed out online service, HD, and perhaps even the capability to play DVDs. This console will be slightly more expensive but it will also probably come out just as Microsoft and Sony are doing their final or near final price cuts.
More importantly, the question of price is all ways being thrown about. Everything from console prices themselves to the profit/loss margin for the companies that make the consoles. This is certainly an important aspect of the discussion but at this early date it doesn't really matter considering the whole razor/blades scheme that was explained in the Next Generation article has barely begun.
When the consoles were first made back in 2001 there was probably a similar apparent problem with the technology. But it would be eventually resolved so that the companies had no problem coming out with the current consoles under the same scheme. To praise Nintendo for basically recycling their old failed Gamecubes into a system with a new control scheme that sells wonderfully may be a good business strategy but it certainly is a blow to the industry's progress as a whole.
Most developers were unaware of the exclusive concentration of Nintendo on the causal and kids markets. And were ready to port over their titles only to find that the Wii's hardware couldn't handle it and the control scheme hard to horse shoe into all ready existing titles.
Every time a journalist interviews a developer about their new PS3 game they ask them what the Sixxaxis controls will be or will they be included at all. Most times this is simply a gimmick and rarely even functions as planned. Unfortunately with most Wii games the same applies. The game maybe able to be controlled with the Wiimote but it is usually unnecessary. The hype of Wiisports, Raving Rabbits, and a small number of other titles might be moving consoles but once the owners get them, they quickly find that very few titles actually USE the motion sensitivity in the Wiimote to any real purpose.
The deep impact on the industry fiscally certainly shows that Nintendo is a master of hype but considering Nintendo's own games are really the only worthwhile titles on the console certainly speaks volumes for their commitment to the industry as a whole.
Since the industry seems to still be on track to make multimillion dollar games and the consequences be damned my guess would be that this trend would continue and the console makers simply focus on more cost effective solutions to old problems like:
Solid state consoles with no disc drive of any kind and solid state memory.
Digital distribution of movies, trailers, content, and games for direct sales which cut out the expensive middle men. (product packaging, game stores, shipping, printing)
More shorter games with episodic content taking the place of long expensive projects.
Indie games that are made by hobbyists that will fill the void between game projects allowing developers to take more time with fewer projects.
All of these items will help to make games cheaper to make and allow console makers to get more bang for their buck. Extending console cycles. This too maybe an effect. Rather than a 4 year cycle it will be more like an 8 year cycle. Not the pie in the sky 8 year cycle that Sony is trying to sell with the PS2 or PS3. But an actually supported cycle that lasts the full 8 years.
Some of the above certainly begins to suppose some things that might not be known yet and certainly maybe assuming some things not yet known. But the whole argument of this kind is based on such things; at least one or two years into a products minimum 4 year life cycle it is anyway.
